So now that Lord Ig has wisely and graciously bowed out of an immediate election scrap, all thoughts shall turn to the next main stage tussle. But first a word on the current state of the political nation. To use the Professor’s own criminal analogy; if the Conservatives are “on probation”, the Liberal’s have a “suspended sentence”, the NDP are suffering from a “hung jury” and the Bloc will once again be relegated to “solitary confinement.”

So where does it all lead? I’m guessing a Spring 2010 federal election. Forget about the Liberal budget amendment for quarterly parliamentary updates triggering a snap confidence vote and election. Not going to happen. Because we still have to go through “double secret probation”, “electronic monitoring probation” and “parole” stages before the Liberals are anywhere near capable of fighting an election. And Harper won’t call it for fear of being branded an opportunist. Again.

So all eyes will now turn to the upcoming 2009 BC spring election where the right wing, privatizing, carbon taxing, big Owe, Olympic Liberal government will be put to the test by a kinder, gentler (but still the same old beast) provincial NDP party. Will Gordon Campbell live to see another term? I’m betting yes – despite a rapidly deteriorating economy. If only so he can take his debt-laden bow at the Olympics – along with the PM. Their one saving grace being that CTV is covering the games this year.
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Every candidate attempts to obtain 4 levels of commitment from voters through the running of their campaign:

i) A vote for the candidate
ii) A commitment to “soft” campaigning for the candidate (speaking with friends, family)
iii) A commitment to “hard” campaigning (volunteering for the campaign: fundraising, going door to door, putting up signs)
iv) Financial support (donations)

Based on the recent Federal election, it would appear that candidates in Canada are having a hard time getting the first commitment out of Canadians.Tamir Birk reminds us that at 59.1%, the 2008 Federal election had the lowest voter turnout in Canadian history.
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