We may have escaped a general election this fall, but four ridings are going to the polls November 9 for by-elections. The two Quebec ridings will likely remain BQ, but the other two ridings, one each in British Columbia and Nova Scotia, are in play, largely between the Conservatives and the NDP. The outcomes won’t shift the balance of power in Ottawa, but they could test Harper’s ability to win a majority. And for child, youth, and family advocates, they isolate and juxtapose these two parties’ family policies in a way that’s usually not possible.

In the BC riding of New Westminster-Coquitlam, there are four candidates, but it’s really a two-horse race between NDP Finn Donnelly and Conservative Diana Dilworth. This riding has swung between NDP and Conservative for years, both candidates have been municipal politicians for years, and both work for environmental non-profits. Donnelly, born and raised in the area, is a local hero for twice swimming the length of the Fraser River to bring attention to sustainability issues. Dilworth’s bio notes that, as a single parent of two adult children, she understands the stresses of raising a family. But she also understands business, having worked in the public, private, and non-profit sectors, and having run her own business.
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So Denis Coderre is the latest casualty in the internecine wars between the Chretien and Martin camps. Apparently the Martinites have come out ahead again despite the party faithful’s best efforts to circumvent both camps by electing Stephane Dion at the last real leadership convention. Alas, Stephane just couldn’t get it together and is rumoured to be contemplating a quiet withdrawal from the ongoing Liberal knife fight – now that his campaign debts are likely paid off.

What oh what are generations of loyal grass roots Liberals to do?

Iggy is floundering like a professor out of college. The Quebec wing is in theatric disarray and there isn’t a safe Liberal seat west of Barrie.
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Every democratic nation has its own version of the story: a competent, admired citizen decides to run for high public office, originally with much excitement about their candidacy, only to fail to live up to the billing. Canada has had a few. Names like Robert Stanfield, Joe Clark and John Turner come to mind. However, we now have the absolute perfect example. For some reason I don’t fully understand, expectations were immensely high for John Tory, and he did not come within a mile of meeting them.

While having immense success in the private sector (bringing about the Rogers monopoly of communications), nearly everything he touched in the public sphere withered and died. After spending much of the 1980’s working in the offices of Ontario Premier Bill Davis and Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, Tory had gained credence in the old Progressive Conservative Party. He was given the task of directing the 1993 reelection campaign for Prime Minister Kim Campbell. Now, granted, I doubt anyone could have saved the PC’s that year. But Tory ruined any slim chance they may have had. Tory was the one who approved the much-criticized ad making fun of Jean Chretien’s facial impairment. With his first crack at taking a lead in politics, John Tory achieved a world record: he was the campaign head for the largest electoral earthquake in democratic history. No incumbent government in any democratic nation has been crushed as much as the ’93 PCs. That was strike one. With that notorious mark on his record, Tory returned to the private sector for a decade, serving as CEO of Rogers and the Commissioner of the Canadian Football League.
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Democracy is about choice. It’s about the right to look at differing visions of the country and make a choice about which you think is best. Some people say the more political parties there are, the more varied the choice and, thus, the stronger the democracy. Is this true? When different political parties take similar stances, is that still a choice?

It has become painfully obvious that the Conservative Party and the Liberal Party no longer represent distinctive options to the Canadian electorate. Stephen Harper has proven time and again that he is willing to compromise his beliefs in search of his majority government (to see how far Harper has come, look up some old Reform Party platforms; the Conservatives are pushing for none of it). The Conservative Party is now far more centrist than it was intended to be, the most glaring proof being the acceptance of deficit economics. Meanwhile, Michael Ignatieff and the Liberals are suffering an identity crisis. Harper’s strategic move to the centre has taken a large piece of the electorate away from the Liberals. Stephane Dion’s response was to propose a radical environmental policy that was intended to win over all progressive voters. The left-of-centre vote never unified behind Dion (remaining split between the Liberals, NDP and the Greens) and drove more traditional Liberal supporters into the arms of the Conservatives. With that strategy deemed a failure, Ignatieff has been forced to subtly acknowledge that his version of the Liberal Party wouldn’t do things very differently than the Conservatives (see Ignatieff’s support of the budget). The Liberals are being squeezed out of the political picture, and since they can no longer offer anything distinctive in terms of policy, they are left hoping Canadians will think Ignatieff is the more capable leader.
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Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff Will Support the Federal Budget With Conditions

As we’re all probably aware of by now, (since NOTHING else has really happened in Canadian politics for the past month…yawn) Michael Ignatieff has decided to support the Conservative budget that was unveiled 2 days ago. But not without an interesting twist:

The Liberal party will only support the minority Conservative government’s federal budget if Prime Minister Stephen Harper agrees to an amendment calling for a “clear marker” of regular updates to Parliament on the impact of economic stimulus projects, Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff said Wednesday.

By supporting the budget, Michael Ignatieff is passing on an opportunity to take down the Conservative government and in doing so, trigger an election or enter into a coalition with the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois. Many Liberals are obviously not happy. The last thing they wanted was for their leader to abandon the coalition. But it’s all part of Ignatieff’s long-term agenda to seize power.

So what’s really behind Ignatieff’s demand that Harper provide regular updates to Parliament? An interesting Liberal strategy – I call it the Waiting Game.
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Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff announced today that he would support the Conservative Party’s budget only if they agreed to certain Liberal-proposed amendments. Ignatieff said he wanted regular budget updates (Mar, June, Dec 2009) that would determine whether or not the Conservatives are successfully implementing a budget that is helping Canada and its citizens. At each update, a confidence vote would be held so that if the opposition parties are not happy with the Conservatives’ progress, they could take down the government.
This “probation” that Ignatieff is proposing has been met with mixed feelings.
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