Former Prime Ministers Brian Mulroney & Jean Chretien - Photo Credit: Canadian Press

Former Prime Ministers Brian Mulroney and Jean Chretien share many negative and positive traits. In fact, the similarities between the two is striking: both of Quebec working class stock, both possessing enormous drive and both doggedly determined to prove their condescending critics wrong, and both very vindictive individuals with an inability to forgive and forget. Both men were remarkable and very effective political campaigners and were viewed by opponents during campaigns as formidable political adversaries. Both married well, each married to a vibrant, warm, and talented lady, and both appear to have been loving husbands. Whatever you may think about Mulroney’s ethics and Chretien’s “ little guy from Shawinigan” schtick, it would have been a glorious and exciting match if these two were to fight each other for the Prime Ministership. But it was a contest that never happened.

What follows is a bit of counterfactual history. What if Brian Mulroney and Jean Chretien were to face each other in a battle for political supremacy? The synopsis that follows reflects my imaginings of what might have happened.
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Photo Credit: Igougo

A few months ago I wrote a paper for a poli-sci class predominantly in response to an article we were instructed to read by Juan Linz. Linz had contrasted presidential with parliamentary democracy, leaning heavily towards the latter as the preferred system of government for most democracies. I couldn’t help but take issue. After all, Linz had never seen the likes of Stephen Harper. Harper, I argued, was already proving that there are several ways to make a mockery of Parliamentarianism’s famed ‘checks and balances,’ the devices often cited by those like Linz as the selling points of the system. Indeed, Harper had (incredibly) exemplified how a prime minister with a penchant for despotism could effectively rule a liberal, democratic state almost autocratically, and that it was high time for Canada to reconsider its parliamentary system as a means to facilitate democracy.

And then things got even worse…
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As parliament nears its end for the current session, some reflection on the most recent sitting is in order. What better way to start than with the release of today’s EKOS Research poll where we find, yet again, stagnation in voting opinions across the country. The breakdown is as follows with the numbers in brackets indicating the percentage of support from the last federal election: Conservatives- 36.5% (37.65%), Liberals- 26.5% (26.6%), New Democratic Party- 16.7% (18.18%), The Bloc Quebecois (in Quebec only) – 39.8% (38.1%), The Green Party- 11.3% (6.78%) and undecided were in the 14.6% range. These figures show what many political analysts have known for some time, and that is that the electorate is not as volatile as it has been in the past. The biggest change is the rise in support for the Green Party, which jumped almost 6% from the time of the last election. It should be noted that the Green Party always tends to garner more support in a non-election year than it does during an election. The NDP’s numbers are down a bit too, but are actually trending upwards in recent months as a result of their stance on the Harmonized Sales Tax.  All the other numbers are relatively unchanged.  So what does this mean in real terms?
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Our parliamentary system is constituted in such a way that the government must maintain a majority of support in the house to pass legislation. This is not a problem when one political party wins a majority of the seats in the house, i.e. the Chretien Era. In this capacity, the government can pass all the legislation it wants with minimal or no responsibility to the opposition parties in the house. In the case of minority parliaments, of which we have seen for most of the past decade now, the government needs the support of at least one other party. Should it not obtain this support, the government must call an election. So far, the Harper government has managed to be defeated in the house without losing the confidence to govern the country. Sound confusing? Actually, the government can only be forced to call an election if it is defeated in a motion of confidence. This can simply be a motion that states that the members of the house have lost confidence in the government, or it can come with the defeat of monetary bills, tax bills, or budget implementation bills.
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In a previous post, I suggested that Mr. Harper and Mr. Ignatieff were, from the point-of-view of the average voter, slightly different flavours of vanilla. Someone on Reddit suggested that my post was a sales pitch for the Conservatives.

Considering that I have called for Mr. Harper to be charged with treason due to his obstruction and inaction on the climate crisis, the idea that I am suggesting people vote for the man is almost funny. The poor Redditor failed to understand the difference between analysis, which is what I was doing, and a recommendation, which I most definitely was not.

Just to be crystal clear, I am also extremely unimpressed with the other choices on the political spectrum. Jack Layton and the NDP seem to have forgotten what principles are in their desperate search for votes, any votes.
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Listening to the retailers association, the RCMP and Imperial Tobacco crying the blues over black-market tobacco is like listening to the cheating husband, his mistress and the wife lamenting over getting too much sex, not enough sex, and not wanting sex.

The first is crying wolf as they benefit from the problem, the second is crying about not getting enough when they aren’t doing anything to advance their cause, and the third is crying foul when they are possibly the source of the problem.

In every province except Quebec, there is an electronic program available to the government to not only monitor tobacco purchases on reserves, but to police off-reserve individuals and make sure they don’t get access to exemptions on tobacco that they are not legally entitled to.

You see, black-market tobacco is not the only problem.  There is also the issue of tax exempt tobacco, legally obtained for the purpose of resale on reserve, and then being sold illegally to off-reserve purchasers. This adds another $1.5 billion in fraud to the $2 billion already mentioned.
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So Denis Coderre is the latest casualty in the internecine wars between the Chretien and Martin camps. Apparently the Martinites have come out ahead again despite the party faithful’s best efforts to circumvent both camps by electing Stephane Dion at the last real leadership convention. Alas, Stephane just couldn’t get it together and is rumoured to be contemplating a quiet withdrawal from the ongoing Liberal knife fight – now that his campaign debts are likely paid off.

What oh what are generations of loyal grass roots Liberals to do?

Iggy is floundering like a professor out of college. The Quebec wing is in theatric disarray and there isn’t a safe Liberal seat west of Barrie.
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Why is it that everything Stephen Harper tries to do becomes the potential trigger for an election? If you listen to Conservative Party spin-doctors you’d likely be led to the belief that the Opposition is building an offensive to take down the Government. Reality check: Mr. Harper, your Government is already at the will of the Opposition. If and when Michael Ignatieff wants to force an election he will do so and he won’t be stopped.

If anything is clear, this moment in time is not right for an election. This past week the Government has been in a deadlock fight with the Liberals over a proposed $3-billion fast-tracked stimulus fund. Why the uproar? Harper’s plan for getting the fund working fast is to bypass the generally required approval procedures for such funding.
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These days, Canadian politics is dominated by a surge of regionalism. None of the four major parties have a convincing nation-wide support to enable an oncoming majority government in the foreseeable future. The media is in part responsible for this trend in two different but equal areas of impact.

The first area is media coverage of the parties to inform the public. During an election (and even off-election times) the media rushes over to the various party campaigns and flocks to the leaders. What ensues is usually a popularity contests based on the personality of the politicians and not what he/she stands for. Sometime during the election campaign, each of the parties gives the media a scent of their respective vulnerabilities by releasing a policy book. It is literature in which the said party declares what it truly stands for and offers its solutions to impending political and economic problems the country is facing. If it is the media’s responsibility to inform Canadians of their political choices then a comprehensive understanding of these policies need to be understood and relayed to the public. Instead, the media has been satisfied to follow each campaign looking for some memorable quotes, criticisms, and banter from the leaders. This suits the politicians as well because they do not have to answer tough questions on their own policy when they can easily criticize the other guy.
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Could it be true? That the NDP party is going to become redundant in the next federal election. I sure hope so for the sake of a renewed federal Liberal party and a stronger two party system. After all, for a country of 30 million persons, do we really need five “national” political parties?

While the great infrastructure begging contest goes on in earnest, the NDP is sending clear signals that they’ll likely vote against the upcoming federal budget – no matter what it contains. Apparently, they’ve been overcome by the scent of power and would like to chance it on their own coalition terms.

Government cheques for everyone!
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