Any follower of professional poker knows that Stephen Harper just went “all in” by proroguing Parliament. It’s because he now holds all four aces.

Ace number one is an opposition in disarray. Iggy is nowhere to be seen or heard. Gilles is emailing-in his commentary. And Jack is basking in the knowledge that eighteen percent of Canadians would vote NDP even if he were a mustachioed blow-up doll.

Ace number two is a reluctant but growing acknowledgment by the national media of Harper’s management of the country relative to the rest of the sinking world, H1N1, his piano playing and yes, Afghanistan. They, like he, know that the majority of Canadians don’t give a rat’s ass what the Afghans do to each other if it means finding and eliminating those who are building the roadside bombs that kill our selfless troops.

Ace number three is a bye election groundswell of new Conservative support in Quebec – aided and abetted (finally) by none other than Jean Charest’s big red Liberal machine.

And Ace number four is the happy Olympic glow that’s going to involve and enrapture all proud Canadians. You can bet that our number one hockey fan will be front and centre with his son when Canada wins the gold medal.

So does all this mean that we will have an election in the spring? Most probably…but by default. Mr. Harper would dare not call it. But the opposition will have no choice but to defeat his throne speech and/or budget in a non-confidence vote, because they are going to get screwed either way. Might as well be sooner than later – so they can all start rebuilding. Or retiring.

I believe that the March Madness that this prorogue is leading up to will include a number of Conservative planks that will give Canadians a clear choice at the polls.

First and foremost will be a tight fisted economic recovery plan that will include no more government funding of political parties. And a recognition that Canadians don’t like to see their civil servants do better than the average Canadian.

Secondly, a commitment to re-open constitutional talks – thereby forever anointing Teflon Jean as the Premier who brought Quebec back into the federal family fold. All in exchange for his ground troops come election day. And roundly supported by a Governor General from Quebec who wants to keep her day job.

Third, a revival of the “tough on crime” legislation that has been held up or watered down in the (until February) Liberal dominated Senate.

And finally a definitive and accountable environmental policy. It will be designed to prevent Canada from losing any well-earned economic advantage by way of a green over-reaction to global whining. It might even slap Alberta’s wrist.

So what will come of the PM’s gutsy poker play?

Well Stephen Harper is a man of God and I’m sure he asked God if now was his time to go “all in.” And God replied: “Yes, I believe it is Stephen. But you must always be respectful of the kind and gentle Canadian voters. For they are capable of a rare straight flush of all leaders if placed too harshly between a rock and a hard place.”

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Tags: conservative party of canada, parliament, prorogue, stephen harper

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