The Copenhagen summit is a hot topic for conversation. Recent polls show that a broad spectrum of Canadians are calling for decisive action on climate change. One wonders why Stephen Harper, who is on a quest for a majority government, continues to ignore an issue that speaks to so many Canadians.

A Conservative prime minister adopting an aggressively environmental platform seems ludicrous, but the political map of Canada is changing. Liberal strongholds are disappearing faster than the polar ice caps. Conservative candidates are beginning to see that environmental action is about saving the economy, not crippling it. It could be that the shortest road to a majority is for Stephen Harper to redefine the Conservative stance on climate change.

The tar sands are a touchy spot for Western Conservatives, specifically Albertans. There is a popular perception that most Albertans are opposed to a stronger emphasis on environmental issues. It follows that Harper is worried about alienating his base supporters. Considering the economic interests of Albertans in keeping the tar sands open, one doubts that the PM would risk angering the West with a new environmental crusade.

To address this supposed East/West divide, we can look at a Harris/Decima poll on the concerns of Canadians regarding the environment. Recently, more Canadians have taken a positive view on the economy. Yet even in August of 2009, when the recession was in full swing, polls showed some surprising results.

When asked whether the environment should remain a top priority for the federal government, 60% of Albertans responded that it should, while only 32% said that the government should focus on the economy. When asked whether the federal government had gone too far to combat climate change, 65% of Albertans said that Harper had not gone far enough, while only 24% said that he had overstepped on the issue.

The statistics present more difficulties when we look at divisions along party lines. An overwhelming 84% of Liberals agree that Harper has not gone far enough to combat climate change. Comparatively, Only 58% of Conservatives think he has dragged his feet on the issue.

When asked whether Harper has spent too much time on the issue, only a slim 34% of Conservatives agreed. When asked whether the environment should remain a top priority for the government, a meager majority of 53% of Conservatives agreed.

Though not decisive, these numbers indicate that a slim majority of Conservatives favour a stronger stance on the environment. The margin is small, but it certainly indicates that Conservatives are not opposed to action on climate change.

For argument’s sake, let’s assume that Harper can make a strong move in Copenhagen without alienating his base supporters. What does he stand to gain?

In the minds of Conservative and Liberal strategists the environment is still a left wing issue. This view has to be shattered.

Environmental issues regularly show up in opinion polls alongside health care, the economy, and Afghanistan. In a recent survey (Harris/Decima Dec 07, 2009) Canadians were asked to rate the importance of environmental issues on a scale of 1 to 10 – 55% of Canadians gave it an 8 or higher. In the same poll 51 % of Albertans said that the environment should remain a top priority, even if the economy is weakened as a result. When asked what they would like to see come out of the Copenhagen Conference, 55% of Canadians said they want a binding international agreement to combat climate change.

The raw data is there, but these polls can’t predict the reaction of Canadians if a binding agreement is reached, and whether they will approve of the form that it takes. That’s a risk that any trailblazing PM has to take, and in a parliamentary democracy, it often takes vision to win broad support.

The key to Liberal success in the 90′s was their ability to see new sources of political support before they developed. For decades the Liberals have been the party of newly arrived Canadians and visible minorities. Paul Martin courageously pushed through the bill that allowed homosexuals equal marriage rights, securing that groups support for the foreseeable future. Even Stephan Dion defined himself as the Green Shift candidate, recognizing the broad appeal of the new environmental movement.

Stephen Harper’s Conservatives have tunnel vision. They see themselves gaining the majority by stealing away Liberal ridings. What they have to do is steal Liberal issues.

There is a persistent perception among Canadians that Harper is a business minded elitist. The poor performance of the Conservative diplomatic corps continues to hamper their image. A strong stance on combating climate change in Copenhagen could change all that. Decisive action on the environment could make the Conservatives the party of the future, the party that recognized the climate crisis and put Canada at the forefront of an international movement to solve it.

Harper’s strategy has been to position himself as the ‘safe vote’ for Canadians. An aggressive stance on climate change could be perceived as unstable or risky; however, polls indicate that there is a greater risk in ignoring a massive outcry for action to save our planet. Combating this crisis will require forward thinking leaders, people of character and vision. If Harper wants a quick road to a majority, he will have to take his head out of the tar sands.

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Tags: climate change, conservatives, copenhagen, Environment, stephen harper

This entry was posted on Thursday, December 10th, 2009 at 5:06 pm and is filed under Environment, Federal Government. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.