So now that Lord Ig has wisely and graciously bowed out of an immediate election scrap, all thoughts shall turn to the next main stage tussle. But first a word on the current state of the political nation. To use the Professor’s own criminal analogy; if the Conservatives are “on probation”, the Liberal’s have a “suspended sentence”, the NDP are suffering from a “hung jury” and the Bloc will once again be relegated to “solitary confinement.”

So where does it all lead? I’m guessing a Spring 2010 federal election. Forget about the Liberal budget amendment for quarterly parliamentary updates triggering a snap confidence vote and election. Not going to happen. Because we still have to go through “double secret probation”, “electronic monitoring probation” and “parole” stages before the Liberals are anywhere near capable of fighting an election. And Harper won’t call it for fear of being branded an opportunist. Again.

So all eyes will now turn to the upcoming 2009 BC spring election where the right wing, privatizing, carbon taxing, big Owe, Olympic Liberal government will be put to the test by a kinder, gentler (but still the same old beast) provincial NDP party. Will Gordon Campbell live to see another term? I’m betting yes – despite a rapidly deteriorating economy. If only so he can take his debt-laden bow at the Olympics – along with the PM. Their one saving grace being that CTV is covering the games this year.

After this joyous celebratory moment for Canada, all bets are off. So just where will you place yours?

Here are a few hints. Don’t bet on the Liberals winning any seats in Western Canada. None, Nada, Zero. OK maybe one. Bet on Mario Dumont and a couple other Action Democratique ex-pats winning a few more seats in Quebec for the Conservatives. Don’t bet on any major changes in the Maritimes but look to New Brunswick for leadership. And Newfoundland for spittle. Bet on rural Ontario voters staying Conservative because they can’t spell Iggy’s full name anyway. And most important, bet on a concerted effort by Bob Rae in Ontario and Justin Trudeau in Quebec to rip away redundant NDP and BLOC seats respectively. Stephane “Green” Dion could even be enlisted to “Shift” Elizabeth May and her one million Green votes into the Liberal Party in exchange for a safe Liberal seat and a shadow cabinet position. Is that Peter McKay I hear breathing a sigh of relief?

Net result? A 152-seat Harper minority, with a Liberal Party in the 120-seat range and les lefties lapping up the dregs. At which point, the Conservatives announce a leadership convention. And so do all the others.

Or not.

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Tags: bloc, conservatives, Federal Election, liberals, michael ignatieff, NDP

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