So now that Lord Ig has wisely and graciously bowed out of an immediate election scrap, all thoughts shall turn to the next main stage tussle. But first a word on the current state of the political nation. To use the Professor’s own criminal analogy; if the Conservatives are “on probation”, the Liberal’s have a “suspended sentence”, the NDP are suffering from a “hung jury” and the Bloc will once again be relegated to “solitary confinement.”

So where does it all lead? I’m guessing a Spring 2010 federal election. Forget about the Liberal budget amendment for quarterly parliamentary updates triggering a snap confidence vote and election. Not going to happen. Because we still have to go through “double secret probation”, “electronic monitoring probation” and “parole” stages before the Liberals are anywhere near capable of fighting an election. And Harper won’t call it for fear of being branded an opportunist. Again.

So all eyes will now turn to the upcoming 2009 BC spring election where the right wing, privatizing, carbon taxing, big Owe, Olympic Liberal government will be put to the test by a kinder, gentler (but still the same old beast) provincial NDP party. Will Gordon Campbell live to see another term? I’m betting yes – despite a rapidly deteriorating economy. If only so he can take his debt-laden bow at the Olympics – along with the PM. Their one saving grace being that CTV is covering the games this year.
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After the near-death experience for the Harper Conservatives in November, I expected Prime Minister Harper and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty to table a budget that would be responsive to growing concerns about the state of the Canadian economy.

And I admit, many of the budget leaks leading up to the official announcement made it seem like Harper was finally in touch with this reality – the proposed increased spending on infrastructure and programmes would provide jobs while tax cuts would spur consumer spending.

When the budget was finally tabled, it did address a number of these issues. And while I applaud the government for making much-needed (and highly uncharacteristic) investments in social spending, they really missed the ball on one key issue …

Employment Insurance (EI).
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There is a conflict in Sri Lanka? You didn’t know? Well, you aren’t alone. The conflict is between the Sri Lankan government and the rebel group officially known as the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. Haven’t heard of them? They also like to be called the Tamil Tigers, and they happen to be considered a terrorist organization by many countries included Canada and the US. The 25 year long civil war is in its last stages as the Tigers have been cornered by government forces in a 300 square kilometer patch of land in the north of the country. There are hundreds of thousands of civilians located in this war zone, unable to escape the conflict.
This all sounds pretty familiar doesn’t it? Terrorist organization attacking a country, civilians are held hostage in the middle, with proposed ceasefires and civilian casualties occurring every day. Claims of both sides using civilians as human shields have been thrown back and forth along with accusations of both parties directly attacking civilians. This war sounds nearly the same as the Israel and Palestinian conflict, right down to the massive protest rallies held in downtown Toronto.
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The York University Labour Disputes Resolution Act, 2009 has been passed by the Ontario legislature and received Royal Assent. As a result, the Executive Committee of Senate declares that the disruption of academic activities that began on November 6, 2008 has ended. Courses and other academic activities that were suspended at the outset of a strike by CUPE 3903 will resume on Monday, February 2.
Its about time.
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Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff Will Support the Federal Budget With Conditions

As we’re all probably aware of by now, (since NOTHING else has really happened in Canadian politics for the past month…yawn) Michael Ignatieff has decided to support the Conservative budget that was unveiled 2 days ago. But not without an interesting twist:

The Liberal party will only support the minority Conservative government’s federal budget if Prime Minister Stephen Harper agrees to an amendment calling for a “clear marker” of regular updates to Parliament on the impact of economic stimulus projects, Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff said Wednesday.

By supporting the budget, Michael Ignatieff is passing on an opportunity to take down the Conservative government and in doing so, trigger an election or enter into a coalition with the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois. Many Liberals are obviously not happy. The last thing they wanted was for their leader to abandon the coalition. But it’s all part of Ignatieff’s long-term agenda to seize power.

So what’s really behind Ignatieff’s demand that Harper provide regular updates to Parliament? An interesting Liberal strategy – I call it the Waiting Game.
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Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff announced today that he would support the Conservative Party’s budget only if they agreed to certain Liberal-proposed amendments. Ignatieff said he wanted regular budget updates (Mar, June, Dec 2009) that would determine whether or not the Conservatives are successfully implementing a budget that is helping Canada and its citizens. At each update, a confidence vote would be held so that if the opposition parties are not happy with the Conservatives’ progress, they could take down the government.
This “probation” that Ignatieff is proposing has been met with mixed feelings.
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“Do not criticize your government when out of the country. Never cease to do so when at home.”
Winston Churchill

OK….I admit it.

This is a slightly re-worked reprint of a column I wrote back in 2006. It even had one of my customary inflammatory titles, but I fear InformedVote.ca might not be ready to entertain me in all of my salty, fight-provoking glory yet. I’ll give you a hint though…the previous title implied Stephen Harper is soooooo enamoured of a certain country to our immediate South, that he metaphorically got down on his knees and….uhmmm….pleasured them.

Now, there is a perfectly good reason why I have chosen this column to reprint and there’s even a reason why I do so today.
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Finance Minister Jim Flaherty Presents Government Budget

Today, the federal government revealed its highly anticipated budget and stimulus plan for pulling our sagging economy out of recession. To sum up in one sentence, the Tories are going to spend tens of billions of dollars to try and pump money into the economy, and Canada will have to weather large deficits along the way. Whatever it takes to keep our economy moving was the message from Finance Minister Jim Flaherty.

A deficit of $33.7 billion for the 2009-10 fiscal year and $29.8 billion the following year is predicted. For 2011-12, the red ink would diminish to $13 billion, followed by a deficit of $7.3 billion for 2012-13. Keeping the Conservatives’ track record regarding their forecasts of budget deficits/surpluses in mind, it seems like these numbers could turn out to be much, much larger. Just months ago, Harper was predicting small surpluses for the coming years, then altered his forecast to small deficits, and now massive ones. That leads me to believe these deficits could turn out to be much larger that we think. If the economy worsens beyond what is expected, this would certainly be true. “If they get worse, we will do more,” said Flaherty, speaking about economic conditions in Canada.

The budget dealt with many different aspects of the economy and Canada, but here is an overview of the major categories:
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Chalk River Nuclear Site

A radioactive spill has materialized at the weathered Chalk River nuclear reactor, located west of Ottawa.

Officials say that this took place because the reactors workload had recently been amplified to meet the demand for medical isotopes, used in the diagnosis and treatment of cancer.

The reactor supplies 70% of the world’s medical isotopes, and a potential shutdown of the plant could leave millions of Canadians, and people the world over, suffering from cancer and heart ailments without the necessary treatments.
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So what was the big news of the day? “Canadians face a difficult year — perhaps several difficult years,” declared Governor General Michaëlle Jean in today’s throne speech from Parliament Hill.

Are you kidding me?!!?! I would have never thought. Although, now that I think about it, there have been some warning signs.

#5. The downturn in housing markets is still unfolding here in Canada, with reduced credit supply likely adding to pressures.

#4. The auto sector and forestry industry can barely stay above water.
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